Before a fall?
Could pound4pound king Mayweather's
extreme confidence work against him?
Andy "TKO" Houghton looks at the big fight from the MGM Grand.

By Andy "TKO" Houghton

Mention the name Mayweather and the one word which comes to mind, rightly or wrongly, is confidence. Roger Mayweather, the uncle and trainer of "Pretty Boy Floyd" had it in droves - at least until he ran into Julio Cesar Chavez in his pomp. To listen to him and the rest of the clan speak, tonight's WBC welterweight title defense against junior welter top dog Ricky Hatton is a foregone conclusion.

Though there is something impressive about the younger Mayweather's absolute refusal to even contemplate the possibility of defeat, the fact remains that his certainty could be a very double-edged sword. Floyd, after all, came as close to surrendering his "0" as has ever been the case in his last bout, when he took a split 12 round verdict over Oscar DeLaHoya for the latter's junior middleweight belt. That DeLaHoya, who in a bizarre twist of fate is to promote tonight's bout, seemingly believes that Hatton is about to take the champ down only adds to the intrigue.

To the outside observer, it might appear that Mayweather has his eye on life after boxing. He did, after all, announce his "retirement" after the victory over DeLaHoya. Though nobody in the game seriously believed that this would be his last fight, and the statement was quickly retracted, recent appearances on "Dancing With The Stars" (his footwork on the dance floor, incidentally, does not measure up to its ring equivalent) suggest the champ at least has one eye on becoming a crossover star when his retirement comes around.

In Hatton, though, he meets a challenger who appears to have got right under his skin. Several of the pre-fight press conferences have seen the Brit's trademark self-deprecating sharp humor shoot his opponent's mouthy digs right down. The bad blood allegedly stems from their first face-to-face meeting. Hatton, having made an effort to shake hands with his rival, received an abusive response and promptly told Mayweather to go forth and multiply. At 29, Hatton is entering his peak years and there is no doubt he is focused beyond believe on the task in hand.

Styles dictate that this one could be a barnburner or a stinker with equal probability. Hatton, we know, will try to force the fight and get into Mayweather's face, where he can rip the champ with his trademark body shots. He appeared superbly conditioned at the weigh in (Hatton came in at 145, while Mayweather made the 147 limit on the button) and there is no doubt that he will be much better than his previous appearance at welter, where he stepped up to face awkward southpaw Luis Collazo at short notice. Mayweather, for his part, pledges that he will not "run" but will stand and fight and slash Hatton to ribbons.

There is indeed the possibility that old physical problems will have a bearing on this bout. Whilst Hatton has not cut anything like as badly since corrective surgery after his bloodbath win over Jon Thaxton seven years ago, Mayweather's hands may be a problem. Sparring stories go that the champ was focusing on his footwork and mobility rather than hitting full pelt during sparring. If Mayweather fights as his more mobile self, as was the case when he won this title from Carlos Baldomir, the fight has the potential to be frustrating, with Hatton attempting to maul and roughhouse on the inside whilst Mayweather is unwilling to engage.

Hatton, for his part, is focused beyond belief for this fight. Whilst this is the third time in three years that he has faced down a modern great in the ring (WTKO12 Kostya Tszyu, June 2005 and WKO4 Jose Luis Castillo June 2007 being the others), this time he is giving up all the advantages. Moving up to fight for his opponent's title, on his opponent's home turf at a weight above what is natural suggests the Manchester "Hitman", 43-0(31KOs) has a genuine confidence in his ability to do the job. Mayweather, 38-0(24) has had trouble with Hatton's type of marauding pressure previously. Two of his toughest fights were with good pressure boxers in Jesus Chavez (WTKO9) and Castillo (W12 twice, the first one controversial). Those advantages, though, could prove to be very significant.

Bearing in mind the obvious bad blood, I see an entertaining bout, with Mayweather standing in the pocket and attempting to box and counter rather than run. Hatton, for his part, will look to force him to the ropes and let rip with the kind of vicious body blows which caved in Castillo, Tony Pep (their only other mutual opponent), Ray Oliveira and a host of others. With Mayweather's noted defensive prowess, this could be a more effective tactic than employing a strategy of pure headhunting as DeLaHoya did. Hatton, though, will need to be educated in his attack. His sometimes-neglected jab will be a key weapon in forcing the situation, whilst hands must be kept high to draw the sting from Mayweather's counters. Whilst the five-weight world champ is not a devastating puncher, his sharp counters can have a cumulative effect if allowed to land unchecked.

Bottom line, whilst Hatton, a former IBF and WBA junior welter champ, can force the fight and have his moments of success where he bullies Mayweather to the ropes, the champ's sharper, more clean punching and uncanny ability to read punches will make the difference. Mayweather to retain, though Hatton probably has a good enough beard to make it to the final bell.

Lace my boots?

On the same card, two former victims of Britain's super middleweight king Joe Calzaghe collide in the same ring, as Jeff Lacy squares off against Peter Manfredo Jr. in a 168lb elimination bout.

For Lacy, it has been a tough couple of years. Rewind to December 2005 and he was very much the coming man, the next big thing to coin a phrase. The Florida man had just made his fourth world title defense with a crushing two round KO of Scott Pemberton. Whilst his meeting with Calzaghe started a 50-50 bout with the bookies, certainly most of America expected him to stomp right through the WBO champ en route to greatness.

The completely one-sided twelve round beat down Lacy received has entered into history. The decision of his corner not to pull him out after nine rounds was the kind which shortens careers. In his only comeback bout to date, Lacy looked good early on, but suffered a torn rotator cuff in struggling to a split 10-round verdict over Vitali Tsypko. After spending a year on the sidelines recovering from that injury, and now at 30 years of age, it has to be now if he is to make another run at a title.

Manfredo, meanwhile, has at least been active, winning twice against low-level opposition since his own complete mismatch with Calzaghe in April of this year. His problem is, that bout was his only real foray into the kind of class Lacy has mixed in. Whilst "The Pride of Providence" is a reasonable boxer, he does not excel in any particular department. Lacy, whilst one-dimensional in style, carries out that one dimension extremely well. I can see his brute strength and power taking its toll on Manfredo, who does not have the power to keep him off as evidence by only 13 stoppages on his 28-4 log.

Bottom line, Manfredo is no Joe Calzaghe. I expect Lacy to record his 18th stoppage victory (currently 22-1) somewhere in the last third of the fight.

No tomato Khan

Earlier in the evening, Britain's former Olympic silver medalist Amir Khan faces his toughest test to date when he collides with former WBO interim title contender Graham Earl at the Bolton Arena.

Whilst former bank manager Earl lost a thrilling five-round war to Aussie Michael Katsidis in that bout (his last outing), the fighters on his record to date are a level above the opposition Khan, 14(11) has faced to date, particularly the wins over Yuri Romanov, Bobby Vanzie and Steve Murray. Whilst Earl is not a huge puncher, he can take heart from the fact that he dropped Katsidis in round two, plus Khan, the commonwealth champion, having to get off the floor to beat Willie Limond a couple of bouts ago. Whilst that second knockdown in his short pro career suggests that Khan does not have the world's best chin, neither, in truth, does Earl.

Whilst Earl, 25-2(12) is likely to have some success, the height, mobility and speed of the younger man (Khan fights on his 21st birthday, Earl is 29) may start to take their toll towards the end. Whilst I would not rule out Earl causing the upset, the defending Commonwealth champ is likely to take the victory in the middle rounds, though he may have to get off the floor to do it.

Separate ways

When Brummie Wayne Elcock out pointed Howard Eastman earlier this year, it was symptomatic of the decline which has seen the once formidable "Battersea Bomber" the loser in four of his last six outings.

Elcock's reward is a shot at another of those four fighters, IBF 160lb champ Arthur Abraham tonight. Whilst the two are meeting in neutral Switzerland, the German-based Armenian has to be a heavy favourite to retain, probably by stoppage.

Eastman, meanwhile, appears on the same night at the Kings Hall, Belfast against local hero John Duddy. Whilst Eastman has clearly been brought in as a big name "opponent" who is seemingly in decline, his crunching dig in either hand ensures that he remains a very live underdog. Nonetheless, I expect Duddy to triumph by decision. When he gets into elite world class, it may be a whole different matter.

Questions or Comments? Email Andy "TKO" Houghton