The Mail Pouch: GGG vs. Brook

By William Trillo

With the big fight day upon us we are glad to dip into the Mail Pouch and take a look at one of our most loyal readers, David McGarry, has to say about the big fight in England. McGarry gives his thoughts on the battle and what he expects to see. Although we have not always seen eye to eye, I think this time he has pretty much hit the nail on the head. Thanks for the insight David. I am sure our readers will appreciate your pre-fight view.

Dear Mr. Trillo,

This could be the best month for boxing in years, and today we have the first of four big promotions. In London, Gennady Golovkin is defending (some of) his world middleweight titles against Kell Brook. On paper, this should be a very easy night’s work for the champion. He’s considered almost invincible, and most of the top middleweights seem scared to face him. His devastating punching power, ruthless efficiency at cornering his opponents and a granite-like chin should make tonight a foregone conclusion against an opponent who is moving up two weight divisions. And yet…

GGG has looked distinctly unwell these past couple of days. His drawn cheeks, lack of muscle tone and a dullness in his eyes suggest he is far from 100% at the time when it matters most. The fact that he and his team left straight after the final press conference and the weigh in without stopping to talk to boxing writers and fans could be a sign Team GGG is really worried, perhaps for the first time since their guy won a world title. By contrast, Brook looks better than ever and is clearly up for the biggest test of his boxing career.

The champion should still be the heavy favourite for this bout, but on the day of the fight it is possible to see a way his challenger could win without being accused of being delusional. A boxer who enters the ring in bad shape will always have problems with stamina. The longer a fight progresses, the weaker he will become. Golovkin will be at his most dangerous in the first three or four rounds. He will want an early night and will go looking for the knockout.

Brook has to find a way to avoid GGG’s attacks. Jabbing and running won’t work against an opponent who is probably the best in the world at cutting a ring off. Brook has to hope he can hit Golovkin cleanly with punches that earn his respect while keeping clear of the champion’s shots. He must resist the temptation to try and rush GGG and try to catch him early. Even in his (possibly) weakened state, the champion is a much harder puncher and an exchange suits him much more than Brook. Kell needs to throw two or three punches at a time then move away, and keep up his work rate.If Gennady really is suffering from an illness or injury, this will affect him much more in the second half of the fight, and that is when Brook should try to pile on the pressure.

Despite all that I’ve written so far, I think Brook will try to match Golovkin in the early rounds and will come undone. It will be exciting while it lasts, and GGG may even be rocked for the first time as a world champion, but the natural middleweight will bite down and walk through the hurtful punches to land a knockout blow. My best guess is it will all be over in the third or fourth round.

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