Vazquez – Marquez: All Bets Are Off

By Sean McChesney


As a fight fan it would be nice to have the capacity to predict the future. Not the ability to foresee an outcome, but rather the knack to accurately gauge whether or not a fight will be entertaining. Experts often boast educated predictions, but with uncertainty it’s ultimately a futile practice.

If the capability to see the future did exist, then it’s probable that last weekend’s HBO telecast of the much anticipated Heavyweight Title Unification would have garnered paltry ratings; the fight was a sleep-inducing bore. It’s doubtful that, with foresight, many journalists would have taken their time write about Klitschko and Ibragimov.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

That’s a statement with which anyone who has dabbled in investments is probably quite familiar. It’s a warning that is often ignored much to the chagrin of the investor. But while past performance does not guarantee future results, it can be a significantly powerful indicator.

This Saturday, March 1st, Super Bantamweight Champion, Israel Vazquez, 42-4 (31) will battle Rafael Marquez, 37-4 (33) live on Showtime. It will be third time the Mexican natives square-off in a span of twelve months. The first two bouts were split: Marquez winning the first by stoppage before subsequently losing by knockout in the rematch - the consensus 2007 Fight of the Year. By all indications the third fight should be compelling affair.

It’s cliché, but in boxing anything is possible. There is always the chance a fight, for whatever reason, will turn into a boring, safety-first, exhibition. If only there were some scientific means by which future performance could be accurately measured.

Hypothetically, a mathematical forecasting model could be developed in which assortments of variables - such as style-compatibility, temperament, and mentality – are assigned a numerical value. The formula would then employ regression analysis to determine correlation. To evaluate the degree to which a fight will entertain the viewer, Zahir Raheem’s career would act as a function of control; the independent variable.

If possible, it could be fairly assumed that the sum of Vazquez-Marquez would generate near perfect negative correlation to Raheem’s career; rationale to stay home on Saturday night.

But until the proposed scientific method passes further research and development, subjective analysis will remain the industry standard.

Because the first two fights were contested at a frenetic pace, with intensity, drama and an elite skill-level, anticipation amongst the media has been widely documented. Judging by comments to the media, it is apparent the fighters are similarly excited. Vazquez recently stated, “This is a fight the fans have been waiting for and the press has been waiting for and one I know I have been waiting for. Saturday is going to be a great night for boxing.”

Just My Opinion:
Rafael Marquez is a more gifted natural athlete, and the superior technician. Containing a diverse skill-set, he is also the more adaptive fighter. Vazquez is slightly larger, but it is Rafael who throws the sharper, more accurate punches. Marquez lost the rematch – in part - because he was impatient, and underestimated his foe. Consequently he fought with a lack of defensive awareness and was stopped inside the distance. What Marquez, “did learn something from the loss,” was that “for this fight, (he) needs to box intelligently in order to win.” But at 32 (not young for a little man) the punishment he absorbed from Vazquez in 2007 will likely have lasting residual effects, and because of the manner in which he was stopped by Israel, I am concerned that – at this point in his career - Rafael’s legs are no longer able to keep pace with his fighting spirit.

Israel Vazquez is an elite boxer-puncher with exceptional conditioning. I believe the trait that makes Vazquez a truly special talent is the innate ability to recuperate from a buzzing shot. While Marquez throws the heavier punches, it is Israel who possesses the ability to quickly recover, and regain his senses. To retain the title Israel must apply intelligent yet persistent pressure, forcing an up-tempo fight. Recalling the manner in which he won the title, Vazquez said, “(he) really wanted to show the world (he) was stronger and better than Marquez; that (his) strategy and conditioning would be too much for him.” To win on Saturday he will need to prove it again.

Both boxers are led by an accomplished skipper: Vazquez by Rudy Perez, Marquez by Ignacio “Nacho” Beristain. A main-stay in the corner of Marquez throughout his career, Beristain and Rafael are comfortable together, which could be important, particularly if Marquez gets into trouble. Perez, on the other hand, was brought in to train Vazquez just weeks before the rematch, but as Vazquez stated, "we have adjusted and gelled very well. He is a great tactician and I am learning a lot of different things from him that have helped me. His strategy for Saturday will be a very good one. But it will be up to me to carry it out." There is no glaring advantage for either fighter with regards to their corner. Perez and Beristain have been here before.

Las Vegas has made Vazquez a healthy favorite to retain the title. The bet is: Vazquez, the fresher, stronger fighter, will once again wear down a game, but out-gunned older man.

As much as I understand the Vegas line, I have a gut feeling the underdog will be too talented and ring-savvy for the younger fighter. I expect Rafael Marquez to diligently abide by the winning strategy Beristain has undoubtedly prepared. Utilizing lateral movement and a purposeful jab look for Marquez to control the distance at which the fight is contested. Slowing the tempo, Marquez will sufficiently dictate the action en route to winning a close, but unanimous decision.

The conclusion of my subjective analysis certainly lacks conviction. I feel like the former U.S. President who once said, “I have opinions – strong opinions – but I don’t always agree with them.” Rafael Marquez recently stated, “One thing's for sure: If either of us makes a mistake on Saturday, it will be very costly and the other will make him pay for it.” In other words, this fight is a toss-up: All bets are off.